On stage we are witnessing
the realization of Iranian precise and detailed plan of reintegrating
themselves into the international community while continuing on with their
much-discussed nuclear program. After an alienated period during the presidency
of Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, Iran is returning step by step to the international
system with the new President Hassan Rouhani. His campaign slogan was
moderation and wisdom. Working to ease the sanctions and bringing back dignity to
the Iranian nation was his promise. 'Is he moderate or not?' was the main topic
of discussion for Rouhani till the beginning of his term. But one thing is for
sure, he managed to improve the image of Iran in the eyes of the international
community. That has been enough to persuade the world powers to ease some
sanctions and continue with the nuclear negotiations.
As a result, the isolation
of Iran is coming to an end. It is also important to note that Tehran’s return
is not by accepting the conditions of great powers’ but forcing their own. Today
its nuclear program is an accepted fact. The negotiations serve just to control
the process, not to halt all the nuclear activities as was intended initially. Iran
is returning to the game as a major regional power.
Off stage we can easily
notice two countries that are following all the developments with high interest
and big disappointment at the same time. Israel and Saudi Arabia, the strongest
American allies in the Middle East, are raising an eyebrow to the new
Iranian-American love affair. They are not shy to show their disapproval and to
campaign against it. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had many
statements regarding the danger of Tehran’s empowerment and how a nuclear Iran is
an existential threat to Israel and to the world in every possible meeting and
speech. Saudi Arabia on the other hand criticized the U.S. harshly of hiding
the truth over Iranian nuclear deal and threatened Washington to pursue an
independent foreign policy.
During the presidency of
Ahmedinejad, Israel had evidence and an audience that shared its concerns. Ahmedinejad
was known by his Holocaust denial and the threat to wipe off Israel from the
map. But with the presidency of Rouhani the image of Iran has changed. He was a
president that spoke comme il faut to
Western ears. He talked about personal freedoms, guaranteeing civil rights,
freeing political prisoners, he wished all Jews a blessed Rosh Hashanah
greeting over twitter, he recently opened a memorial for fallen Iranian Jewish
soldiers during Iran-Iraqi war, he exchanged letters with the American
President Barack Obama and coordinated with Russia for the 2013 agreement with
Bashar al Assad over the elimination of Syria’s chemical weapons. The image of
Iran was changing in a very positive way and the U.S. jumped to the opportunity
of diplomacy instead of another endless intervention in the Middle East.
Israel is left alone in its
struggle against the Iranian nuclear threat. Iran still claims that its nuclear
program is for peaceful purposes only and stresses that it has the right to
nuclear energy while the so-called P5+1 (The U.S., U.K., France, China, Russia
plus Germany) have doubts about their honesty, as Tehran had hid their nuclear
program from the world until the National Council of Resistance of Iran revealed
the existence of the nuclear activity at Natanz in 2002. Despite significant
progress being made according to P5+1, both sides agreed to postpone the
deadline for a comprehensive solution to 1 July 2015.
For Israel Iran is the
number one threat with its nuclear program. For Saudi Arabia Iran is its major
rival in the struggle over the regional influence. The Iran-Iraq Shiite axis
has always been a threat for Saudi Arabia and its Sunni allies. The known
historical dream of Persian hegemony in the region and the nuclear program of
Iran is keeping these fears alive.
A ghost alliance between
Israel and Saudi Arabia seems to be formed against Iran as they share the same
concerns. A fear of losing the advantages Saudi Arabia and Israel gained since
the 1979 Iranian Revolution when Iran completely changed its pro-American and
pro-Western stand is one of the reasons, while a change in the Middle Eastern
balance of power being the major worry.
Israel and Saudi Arabia are
deeply frustrated with the recent regional policies of their main Western ally
America. President Obama stated that he wanted to be known as the president
that ended all wars and he succeeded to bring back home every American soldier
from the Middle East. He made it clear that he did not want American boots on
the soil in the Middle East again.
Both countries share the
same concern; the U.S. may be a reliable ally who would come to their aid in
case of an imminent Iranian threat but it will not be able to prevent the
nuclear threat itself. And when Iran possesses a nuclear weapon or gain the
know-how to produce a nuclear bomb, it will easily expand in Middle East, spread
its influence all over the region and at the end may win the historical
Sunni-Shiite rivalry. An Iranian attempt to close the Straits of Hormuz is
another nightmare scenario for Saudi Arabia and also for the Western world. Both
Israel and Saudi Arabia defend the political status quo in the region as much
as they can.
At this point Israel is seen
as a countervailing power. Even though Jerusalem has never admitted to it,
Israel is considered as the only nuclear power in the Middle East, a deterrent
power to stop Iran’s plans. Saudi Arabia is also well aware of Israel’s
economic and political strength as well as its military power and advanced
technological abilities in the middle of an ocean of instability called the
Middle East.
Iranian threat may be the
main catalyst in Israeli-Saudi Arabian rapprochement but they also have many
shared interests. Muslim Brotherhood movement and its affiliate Hamas being one
of them. Both support the al-Sisi regime in Egypt which is a God’s gift to
Israel throughout its struggle with Hamas. Egypt sides with Israel when the
issue is Hamas. Recently it declared Hamas as a terror group and destroyed many
tunnels connecting the Sinai Peninsula to the Gaza Strip to counter the rising
insurgency. Cairo also accuses Hamas of being involved in military attacks
inside Egypt. The rise of Al Qaeda and ISIS are major concerns that both
countries share. Standing against Hezbollah and the Assad regime are other shared
interests.
Even though Iran and all
these concerns develop pragmatic ties between these two countries, the major obstacle
between Israel and Saudi Arabia is the Palestinian issue and the Arab streets
which are the biggest advocates of Palestinian rights.
In 2002, Saudi Arabia on
behalf of the Arab League made a peace proposal to Israel known as the Saudi Peace
Initiative. The proposal offers recognition of the Jewish state and
normalization of relations in exchange of full withdrawal from the territories
captured in the 1967 War, an acceptable solution to Palestinian refugee problem
and the establishment of a Palestinian State with East Jerusalem as its capital.
This is a historical moment as the Arab League realized that Israel’s existence
is a fact that they have to get use to living with it, instead of trying to
destroy it.
Iran continues to moderate
its foreign policy with its new president and continues to integrate into the
international system. Tehran has been successful at easing the sanctions that
hit its economy very hard in the past. With these developments, the balance of
power in the region is changing while the historical Arab-Persian rivalry and
Sunni-Shiite divide is escalating. The war against Islamic extremism and the
return of Iran to its long held position as a major regional power with added nuclear
capabilities is the major concern that unites Israel and Saudi Arabia. On the
other hand, the Palestinian issue is the main obstacle in bilateral relations. Starting
an open relation between the two countries is not very easy as the Arab streets
will reject the idea and this can cost Saudi Arabia a lot more than its
benefits. For Israel a nuclear Iran is an existential danger, while for Saudi
Arabia it is an ideological threat. Especially the security threat that Tehran
poses to both of these countries is what made them the frenemies of the Middle
East.
Karel Valansi Diplomatic Observer February 2015 issue
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