The
EU-Turkey leaders’ meeting will take place on March 26 in Varna,
Bulgaria. While the EU accession process for Turkey is going nowhere, it can be
said that the EU is trying to change the paradigm, stressing stronger
cooperation in specific areas such as trade, defense including
counter-terrorism and migration issue, instead of full membership. On the other
hand, Ömer Çelik, Turkey’s minister for EU affairs already declared that Turkey
would reject any deal for a closer partnership that did not involve becoming a
full member. But how did we get there, and what the future holds?
The Past
2017 marked the 60th anniversary of the Treaties
of Rome. Head of member states and presidents of EU institutions came together
in Rome in March 2017, where the founding six European
members had signed the Treaty of Rome in 1957, to celebrate
and sign a joint vision for the future of the EU.
Turkey’s path to EU membership started two years
later, in 1959, when she first applied to join the European Economic Community
(EEC). Since then Turkey signed the Ankara Treaty in 1963 with EEC, submitted a formal request for full membership in 1987, joined the
customs union with the EU in 1996, became an EU candidate in 1999, and in 2005
accession negotiations started. Today, the momentum in Turkey’s accession
process is lost. Turkey has been waiting for its accession to the EU for decades
now.
The Present
For Turkey, EU accession is bigger
than just a foreign policy issue as it is a key political goal that has the
power to create a change in various areas of policy. As described in TÜSİAD’s declaration for Europe Day
2017, the
accession process became the driving force behind Turkey's transformation
through reform. It also served positively in Turkey's relations with other
regions. Turkey has become economically appealing and a reference for democracy
for emerging countries. The EU accession process is an opportunity in terms of
fundamental democratic reforms, liberal environment, and technical regulatory
alignment.
Today, for both the EU and Turkey
the enthusiasm to proceed is low. Nevertheless, both parties are still in
dialogue for progress even though there are major problems that has to be
overcome. There are many issues such as the acceleration of EU enlargement resulting
with an enlargement fatigue, the long process Turkey had to deal with; no other
country has been kept waiting for accession and membership so long, the
blocking efforts of Greece in the past, the acceptance of Cyprus as a member.
Additionally, discussions over Turkey’s human rights, liberties and democracy
arose skepticism in many European capitals and the mooting of privileged
partnership as an alternative for Turkey. It can also be said that there was a
change in the EU itself. Enlargement was not seen as a solution anymore, while Islamophobia
was fed by terrorist attacks and migration from mainly war-torn Syria.
Turkey's accession negotiations have
lost its momentum. This is not just because of Turkey’s reluctance and failure to
comply with EU standards. According to Ünal Çeviköz, it has a
more fundamental reason behind; Turkey thinks that the EU is not objective and
impartial towards Turkey. On the other hand, I must add, it is not just about
Turkey either. There is a major change inside the EU. The EU is preparing to
embark upon a transformation following Brexit. The European Commission prepared
a White Paper with five possible paths for the future of the EU after Brexit, as
it suffers from globalization, migration, populism, security concerns, and financial
crisis.
The
Future
There are several scenarios for the future of Turkey-EU relations.
According to Nathalie Tocci from Brookings, there are three possible scenarios: In the
first scenario, there will be a growing competition and conflict between Turkey
and the EU. The EU will pretend there is accession negotiation with Turkey. But
even Turkey’s supporters in the EU will lose faith in the long process. In the
second scenario, Turkey and the EU will abandon the accession process and will
reach a new framework for cooperation based on respective complementarities. But
the EU will lose its leverage on Turkish domestic politics. In the final
scenario, the EU will restart the enlargement process towards the East and
Turkey will become a full member. In this case, the EU will feature a more
integrated core consisting of the Eurozone or inner core such as Germany and
France. Turkey will become a member but will not be its most central element.
According to the Dahrendorf Forum’s report, Turkey and the EU relations
in 2025 will be characterized by autocratic and geopolitically emboldened
Turkey. In the first scenario, they will be able to maintain a functional
relationship due to Turkey’s rent-seeking behaviour and EU’s dependence
on Turkey in various issues. In the
second scenario, the EU is characterized by a less
united, inward looking EU with many domestic problems and less effective
regional and global influence. In this case, the EU will lose its economic
weight and its normative power as well. Turkey is characterized by political,
social and economic instability and its diminished role in the Middle East. This
is a catastrophe scenario where Turkey’s accession is not even discussed. In
the last scenario, Turkey takes advantage of the refugee deal but the EU lacks
leverage and its disunity continues. Refugee deal may be a game changer but the
analysis does not give much chance to Turkey’s membership.
2018 started with a
new and fresh spirit on Turkey-EU relations with the meetings between Turkish
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris
and Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Cavuşoğlu and his German counterpart Sigmar
Gabriel in Berlin. There is an effort from EU and Turkish leaders to mend ties.
However, there is a gap between what the EU can offer and what Turkey is
willing to accept. Cooperation in specific areas instead of full membership is
what is pronounced in EU capitals. In that case, UK’s agreement with the EU
following Brexit can be a model for Turkey. However, as Ömer Çelik said in his interview with Reuters,
Turkey will not even consider an offer of privileged partnership.
Turkey has waited
long to be accepted as a member of the Union. Today both entities lack the
enthusiasm to continue with the process. Inner dynamics, global security
problems are some of the major reasons for this. In the short term, Turkey has
a slight possibility of becoming a full EU member. But it will be unfair to say
that this is only due to Turkey. This is also the result of the transformation
inside the EU. The EU is preparing to the exit of the UK from the Union while
facing many problems such as refugee crisis, the rise of nationalism,
xenophobia, right wing parties and populist leaders. With such challenges
ahead, the EU does not consider the enlargement of the Union as its main
strategy.
Karel Valansi, Daily Sabah 26 March 2018 https://www.dailysabah.com/op-ed/2018/03/26/will-turkey-ever-become-an-eu-member
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